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The End of Moore's Law:Preparing for the Future

Without a doubt, our modern life depends on computers, and computers depend on silicon-based processor chips. Computers continue to improve over time with better processing power.

ContentsQuantum computingGraphene and carbon nanotubesNanomagnetic logicCold computingCompound semiconductorsAtomicsWhat are the most likely replacements?

Moore's Law is the observation that computer chips are getting faster, more energy efficient, and cheaper to produce at a predictable rate. Every eighteen months or so, the number of transistors placed on a silicon chip doubles. Each new generation of computer chip has lower performance gains than the previous one.

The End of Moore s Law:Preparing for the Future

The main problem with quantum computing today is that those working with the concept have yet to surpass the speed at which a task is already accomplished using conventional silicon-based technology. That speed stayed just out of reach.

Graphene and carbon nanotubes

Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms that is considered the strongest material on earth. It is 200 times stronger than steel but elastic enough to be stretched 20-25% of its original length. It is exceptionally light and conducts heat and electricity better than other known materials. Graphene is made of carbon, so it is extremely abundant, but it may be years before it is available for commercial production.

The End of Moore s Law:Preparing for the Future

Graphene cannot be used as a switch. Silicon semiconductors can be turned on and off with an electric current, but graphene cannot, so using graphene would result in a computer that cannot be turned off.

If graphene can replace silicon chips, we see the possibility of technologies like foldable laptops, super-fast transistors, and cell phones that won't break.

Nanomagnetic logic

The NML depends on networks of nanomagnets. These magnets vary in size from a few nanometers to a few hundred nanometers. Nanomagnets work like silicon, but instead the process relies on switching magnetization to create the binary code. It uses dipole-to-dipole interactions (the interaction between the north and south poles of the magnet) to transmit data, and since it does not require electricity, it only needs a small amount of energy to operate.

Cold computing

While it's not necessarily brand new technology, it's a concept that manufacturers are considering as a way to extend the life of Moore's Law. By reducing the chip temperature, there will be less current leakage. This cold temperature will reduce the threshold voltage at which the transistors switch. The use of cold computing can allow us to increase performance and memory power by four to ten years.

Compound Semiconductors

Semiconductors created from two or more elements are faster and more efficient than silicon alone. These semiconductors are already available and will soon find their way into 5G and 6G phones, giving them more speed, smaller size and better battery life.

Atomic

The End of Moore s Law:Preparing for the Future

Technology has evolved to the point where we can manipulate materials down to the atomic level. Chip technology is no exception. IBM figured out a possible way to store data on a single atom. Today, it takes 100,000 atoms to store a single 1 or 0.

Atoms are inherently unstable, so for this to be a viable option, more logic will be needed for things like error correction.

What are the most likely replacements?

Compound semiconductors are the only option for silicon-based processors that are viable today. Beyond that, the technology that seems to hold the most promise at the moment is the use of nanomagnetic computing. It's also possible that the computers of the future will contain layers of various technologies, each to counter the disadvantages of the other. But at the moment, no one can accurately predict what the computers of the future will look like.